Little Green Footballs

Thursday, March 09, 2006

The rest of the story

Our fascist friends over at the Brussels Journal have their panties in a wad again, this time over the large gains made by left-wing parties in yesterday's municipal elections in the Netherlands.

Belien cites an Elsevier article:

The center-right VVD, the party of famous Dutch policians such as Ayaan Hirsi Ali and Frits Bolkestein, received only 1% of the immigrant vote. The CDA got 3%, the SP 5% and Green Left 7%.


Ooooh, scary! We're all gonna DIE!!

But -- perhaps counting on the fact that very few of his most avid fans understand Dutch -- he conveniently neglected to mention another passage from the same article:
De opkomst onder de allochtonen was traditiegetrouw laag: gemiddeld 37 procent in de vier steden. Onder Turken was de opkomst hoger. Zo ging in Amsterdam 44 procent van hen naar de stembus en in Rotterdam zelfs 55 procent. Van de Marokkanen die mochten stemmen nam 35 procent de moeite en van de Surinamers en Antillianen 24 procent.

Oh, sorry. Here it is again in English:
Turnout among allochtonen [foreign-born people, and those with at least one foreign-born parent -ed.] was low, as usual: an average of 37% in the four cities [of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, Breda, and Arnhem]. Turnout among Turks was higher. In Amsterdam 44% of them went to the polls; in Rotterdam, as many as 55%. Among Moroccans eligible to vote, 35% took the trouble; among Surinamers and Antilleans the figure was 24%.

When one considers the fact that Moroccans are by far the most frequently demonized group of allochtonen in the Netherlands, the fact that 80% of 35% of eligible Moroccan voters supported the Labour Party is somewhat less than earth-shattering.

But wait! There's more!
the point of the story is bollocks and even the slightest grasp of mathematics will tell you why.

There are 2 million "non-Western allochtones" (1st and 2nd generation) in NL. Only 1 million of those were eligible to vote in these elections (source). Less than 40 percent, or 400,000, of those actually voted. Of those who voted, 80 percent voted for PvdA [Labour Party -ed.]. That makes 320,000 at most. The PvdA has always been popular among non-Western allochtones. If, say, 40 percent of them already voted for PvdA in the last elections (a very conservative estimate), then the number of extra votes for PvdA from this part of the population comes to 160,000 at most. This "80 percent of non-Western allochtones who voted voted for PvdA" is the only statistic Belien can have in mind, as there were no other relevant statistics. However, although almost all muslims are non-Western allochtones, far from all non-Western allochtones are muslims. There are about 1 million muslims in NL, or half of the number of non-Western allochtones. This fact could bring the number of extra votes from muslims for PvdA in these elections down to about 80,000.

Still with me?

Now, how many extra votes do you think PvdA got in these elections as compared to the last one? 80,000? Nope: 670,000. The assertion that the muslim vote is responsible for the PvdA victory is therefore ridiculous. The Volkskrant article quoted by Belien therefore states no such thing. Moreover, the other party gaining massively in the last elections was the SP, who are not very popular among allochtones. The shift towards the left-wing parties occured across the board.

Belien also neglects to mention the widely-publicised fact that the tendency for allochtones for the past 20 years had been to vote increasingly for parties like VVD and CDA [right-wing governing parties -ed.] as well. VVD and CDA have apparently managed to succesfully alienate this part of their electorate over the past 4 years.

Thus, we can safely conclude that Belien's blaring headline, "Muslim vote tips the balance in the Netherlands," is misleading. No, on second thought -- it's an outright lie. No wonder Little Green Media Pajamas Footballs are so fond of him!

3 comments:

dz alexander said...

Thanks. I enjoyed that.
On one forum I frequent, someone announced that "The majjority of children under 14 in the Netherlands are muslim" supplemented with just the sort of racist anquish that you parody.
On checking, I found the source to be one of the moonie regulars http://www.benadorassociates.com/article/9207 whose version was "In the Netherlands four largest cities ...." a statement which is essentially meaningless without knowing how the cities are defined.
Upon checking, what his claim really refered to was a population of about 2.05 million people [1/8th of Netherland's total] which is crammed into the inner-city municipalities of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht. These are "the Netherlands' four largest cities".

Within those enclaves, with population density of 4111 km2, 31% are "non western foreign" and they produce 47% of the babies.
In the Netherlands as a whole, [pop density 482 km2], 10 % are NWF [5.5% muslim] and these NWF produce 16% of the babies.

Like you appear to have, I found categorization of Dutch demograpic statistics someowhat odd --

" The category ‘non-western’ includes persons with a Turkish, African, Asian and Latin-American
background. Persons with a Japanese and Indonesian background are classified as
western on the basis of their social and economic position in Dutch society. "

dz alexander said...

Thanks. I enjoyed that.
On one forum I frequent, someone announced that "The majjority of children under 14 in the Netherlands are muslim" supplemented with just the sort of racist anquish that you parody.
On checking, I found the source to be one of the moonie regulars http://www.benadorassociates.com/article/9207 whose version was "In the Netherlands four largest cities ...." a statement which is essentially meaningless without knowing how the cities are defined.
Upon checking, what his claim really refered to was a population of about 2.05 million people [1/8th of Netherland's total] which is crammed into the inner-city municipalities of Amsterdam, Rotterdam, The Hague and Utrecht. These are "the Netherlands' four largest cities".

Within those enclaves, with population density of 4111 km2, 31% are "non western foreign" and they produce 47% of the babies.
In the Netherlands as a whole, [pop density 482 km2], 10 % are NWF [5.5% muslim] and these NWF produce 16% of the babies.

Like you appear to have, I found categorization of Dutch demograpic statistics someowhat odd --

" The category ‘non-western’ includes persons with a Turkish, African, Asian and Latin-American
background. Persons with a Japanese and Indonesian background are classified as
western on the basis of their social and economic position in Dutch society. "

Winston Smith said...

Likewise, right-wing scaremongers are fond of citing the fact that half of Amsterdam's population is foreign-born. But what they inevitably fail to mention is the fact that 25% of these are Western "allochtonen" (mainly other Europeans, as well as North Americans and Australians), and of the remainder, around half are non-Muslim (mostly Surinamers and Antilleans).

In Amsterdam, there are more Surinamers than Moroccans; there are more foreign Europeans than Turks.