Little Green Footballs

Tuesday, December 20, 2005

Facts on the ground

Expect much jubilation in "The Blogosphere" today as word spreads of an upturn in Our Leader's approval ratings.

Overall, 47 percent of Americans in this ABC News/Washington Post poll now approve of George W. Bush's work in office; 52 percent disapprove. While hardly robust, that is up from a career low 39-60 percent in early November to its best in nearly six months.

We'll leave it to the "polls don't matter" crowd to evaluate the significance of this bounce. As for the possible causes, here's some speculation:
The president's recent speechmaking on Iraq may have helped him. But public opinion tends to move on the basis of facts on the ground rather than political pronouncements, and the most striking change in this poll is linked to last week's successful elections in Iraq.

But what's this? Pajamas Media's Baghdad correspondent is reporting
many violations and incidents of fraud including the report we heard of some time ago about forged ballot papers coming from Iran and the cases in which boxes didn’t reach some Sunni regions.

The Front has also said that they will not approve the outcome of the results and will not recognize the parliament or the government if their objections are not considered or if the elections are not redone in Baghdad under international observation.

So far this doesn't sound like a particularly "successful election" to us.

So what effect will these "facts on the ground" have on Our Leader's ratings? Color us cynical, but we're inclined to believe that most Republicans -- those being the people whose flip-flopping attitudes toward Our Leader are most responsible for the bounce -- will choose not to pay very close attention to the emerging "facts on the ground" in post-election Iraq. Not that we wouldn't savor the irony if Omar's report were to inspire renewed skepticism among the Republican faithful.

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